Connect The Dots USA: Connects On All Things Fiscal

This past January, Connect The Dots USA published a piece that was relevant to any layman’s review our our “spending’ issues.  The piece is still relevant as the GOP continues to seek austerity measures, when such measures might harm a slowly recovering economy.  The salient point on matters of the economy; we cannot afford to have a party has failed to match Democrats in fiscal management. 

 

Considering the graphic above and the Connect the Dots USA information that follows, I am going to pose a couple of questions at the end of this piece.

 

Connect The Dots USA

January 2

US Economy: Progress and a Lomming Threat

Economic news continues to skewer to the positive.  We are fortunate the news is good.

The economy is improving, but as is the case with all things 112th and 113th Congress, there is trouble on the horizon.  The Obama Administration (which is singularly responsible for our improving economy) and obstructionist legislative bodies are moving the nation closer and closer to the self-imposed “Sequester”.   

Congress is in “recess” as of yesterday with three to four days in session before the sequester kicks-in.  We can only hope our broken federal government avoids dragging the nation into a recession.

Our periodic visits to the following economic data could very well reflect a “snapshot of what might have been”: an economy improved to the level of approaching fully recovered. “Fully recovered” is not practical, but steady progress from the Obama Team since the hard-fought Stimulus is welcome . 

Let’s take a quick journey through relevant economic indicators. 

  Budget, Deficit and all related

Huffington Post is reporting economic performance for January that provides additional indicators our economy is slowly coming back to life. The Treasury Department said Tuesday that the government took in a surplus of $2.9 billion in January, helped by nearly $9 billion more in Social Security taxes. Last month Congress and the White House allowed a temporary cut in Social Security taxes to expire. The monthly surplus was the first since September. Through the first four months of the 2013 budget year, the deficit has grown $290.4 billion. That’s nearly $60 billion lower than the same period a year ago. Revenue through those four months is 12.4 percent higher compared with the same period last year, while spending has grown only 3.5 percent. The budget year began on Oct. 1. Full story

Business Insider: US Budget Surplus

Economic Confidence (Gallup)

February 5, 2013 Monthly U.S. Economic Confidence Matches Five-Year High Economic confidence improved most weeks in January by Dennis Jacobe, Chief Economist  WASHINGTON, D.C. — U.S. Economic Confidence improved to -13 in January, matching the five-year monthly high set in November 2012. Economic confidence improved steadily from September to November before falling back to -17 after the presidential election, but has now returned to its pre-election peak. These results are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews, conducted by landline and cellphone, with more than 14,000 Americans from Jan. 2-31.

  US Department of Labor Employment 

January’s report marks 35 consecutive months of private sector job growth totaling more than 6.1 million jobs. It also shows that the economy gained 2.25 million private sector jobs in 2012, which includes an annual revision to the survey that resulted in an additional 424,000 jobs. Monthly Change in Total Private Employment, February 2008 – January 2013. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program. Our recovery from the Great Recession continues at a steady pace as we build on previous gains in job creation. The recent strengthening of the housing market, in particular, is driving welcome growth in construction employment, with 98,000 jobs added over the past four months and 296,000 jobs over the past two years. Retail jobs, health care jobs, and professional and business services jobs also contributed to the positive numbers in today’s report. Employment in Major Industries Since the Employment Trough, February 2010 – January 2013. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program. Over the last three months, we’ve added an average of 208,000 private sector jobs, and that is a real testament to the resilience of our economy. But there is more work to do.

  Employment, GDP, CPI, Retail Sales, Industrial       Production (The St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank)

See more after the break

Employment  Four Week Moving Average Initial Unemployment Claims Who was president in 1980?  How about a close look at economic recessions during the data period 1980 – 2012. GDP (INDEX GROWTH) CPI    Retail Sales (Excluding Food Service)         Industrial Production (2007 Unit  100)       Housing Starts (2000 – 1.31.2013)

  Auto Industry (Sales and Employment related charts through 2012)

International Business Times (Photo: IBTimes/Angelo Young) Here’s a chart of January’s U.S. retail sales from 2007 to 2012 excluding auto sales but including gas station purchases and building and garden materials. Notice the steep drop during the last economic recession. US Department of Labor   Employment in Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers and US Total Light Vehicle Sales, Seasonally Adjusted, 2007-2012. Circled spike is attributed to “Cash for Clunkers” initiative. When the President took office the U.S. auto industry was on the verge of collapse. From February 2000 to June 2009, the motor vehicle and parts sector alone lost over 700,000 and vehicle and parts sales another 204,000 jobs. Private capital was fleeing to the sidelines.  Some said we should “let Detroit go bankrupt.”  With over 1 million jobs at stake, the President refused to let that happen. The industry has seen a complete turnaround since June 2009. Since then, the industry has added 217,000 jobs. This is both because of increased hiring in the manufacturing of vehicle and parts but also due to increased hiring in automobile dealers. Employment in Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers and US Motor Vehicle Production, Seasonally Adjusted, 2007-2012.

Housing through 2012 (Pdf)

Market Indicators

Dow Jones Industrial Average: Linked 

NASDAQ: Linked

S & P:  Linked

We repeat! 

It would be shameful to see the nation’s slow economic healing come to a halt.  President Obama and his economic team have been correct strategy and execution since before Obama took office.  Conversely, Republicans in Congress have been wrong at every turn. Why should be believe the GOP is more effective at measures to improve the economy?  The question is rhetorical.

Evidence Based World: Jobs, Unemployment, And Our Improving Economy

And…..the improvement continues, albeit it slowly.

The week’s market performance are indications of the slowly improving economy.  Despite repeat “Obama failed economy” comments from conservatives and Right-wing propaganda outlets (e.g., Fox News, Limbaugh, and pundits), our “Evidence Based” world looks different. The following one minute video speaks to an improving economy.   After the video we want to focus on a key economic indicator: Jobs. 

Before we move to Steve Benen’s charts (and comment), let’s refresh our memory with a quick “Evidenced Based” digression. 


We finish the comparison with the Obama Stimulus, and the jobs picture after the Stimulus.


End digression….
Steve Benen’s work for the Maddow Blogs helps understand the monthly jobs figures for January and the unemployment rate which ticked up to 7.9 per cent.

Economy adds 157k jobs in January, revisions way up

…….The unemployment rate was effectively unchanged at 7.9%, and as is often the case, austerity measures undermined the employment landscape — while America’s private sector added 166,000 jobs in December, the public sector lost 9,000 jobs. Indeed, over the last three months, the nation’s private sector added 624,000 jobs, while 24,000 government jobs were lost. 

It’d be easy for Washington to improve the latter number and lower the unemployment rate, but congressional Republicans won’t allow it. 

Regardless, today is the day the BLS publishes its revisions for all of 2012, and that’s where we see the genuinely good news. Not only were the job totals for November and December revised up considerably — 127,000 jobs combined — but for the entire 2012 calendar year, we learned this morning of an additional 335,000 jobs that had not been previously reported. 

That means 2.17 million jobs were created just last year, which is the best annual total since 2005, and tops seven of the eight years Bush/Cheney was in office. [Update: You'll want to check this out.]

Read more (linked title above)

Benen’s link at the end of the text able navigates to the following chart. The chart shows real “Evidence Based”, as per Hillary Clinton, data and illustration of the nation’s recent jobs history It indicates that the GOP under Bush administered an economy that was a jobs failure. Since the chart was developed without a dedicated legend, we are posting a few words from Benen’s 2.1.2013 post. 

So, let’s take a minute to take a closer look. I put together this chart this morning, showing annual job totals from the start of Bush/Quayle through the end of 2012. Blue represents Democratic administrations, while red represents Republican administrations, and darker colors represent job creation overall, while lighter colors represent job creation in just the private sector. 

What does this tell us? A few things. First, Clinton and Obama outpace Bush and Bush in creating new jobs, even though both Democratic administrations inherited weaker economies. 

Second, the 2.17 million jobs overall in 2012 really was the best year since 2005, and surpass seven of the eight years of Bush/Cheney. While 2012 obviously wasn’t robust for job creation, it managed to surpass three of the eight years Clinton/Gore was in office, too. 

And third, while the private sector has done better than the overall economy under Obama, under his three most recent predecessors, the opposite was true.

An “Evidence Based World…..”

Are we better off now?

24/7 Wall St. Ranks Our States

Cross posted from 27/7 Wall St.   Where does you state stack-up against the other 49 states?

The Best and Worst Run States in America: A Survey of All 50

How well run are America’s 50 states? The answer depends a lot on where you live.

Every year, 24/7 Wall St. conducts an extensive survey of all fifty states in America. Based on a review of data on financial health, standard of living and government services by state we determine how well each state is managed. For the first time, North Dakota is the best run. California is the worst run for the second year in a row.

Read: The Best and Worst Run States in America

Read more: The Best and Worst Run States in America: A Survey of All 50 – 24/7 Wall St.

CNN Money’s Economic Snapshot

The unbelievable undecided and the reality of a return to this (with different faces)

As we move closer to the most important election since Bill Clinton left the White House, there are people who for some reason are undecided about their vote next Tuesday.  Undecided in this election is both unbelievable and dangerous.  

 

Unbelievable considering empirical data showing an improving economy. The economy immediately started to improve after the Obama Stimulus (Aka American Recovery and Reinvestment Act – ARRA). Contrary to GOP rhetoric and Fox News propaganda any basic US economic chart will show an immediate economic turn-around for a certain fall into another Great Depression. 

 

 

And Mitt Romney continues to rail about how the stimulus did not work.  

 

I am sure you have heard the following. You might even have stated the towards yourself  “Obama’s failed economy”.  Well, a failed economy is depicted in the chart just above and it is illustrated in red bars.  The Obama economy is as follows.

 

CNN Money has published 13 charts that make shows nothing but improvements in the US economy. The charts do not address the number one issue impacting the USA economy.  Job growth. Yes, there is a chart that depicts job growth, but the chart cannot depict the impact of GOP obstructionism in developing or reinstating public sector jobs.  Private Sector employment has grown consistently since the ARRA. Public Sector employment has been stifled by Mitch McConnell’s proclamation of obstructionism and Boehner/Cantors refusal to consider viable jobs bills.

 

Jobs drives the US economy  It does not take much thought to realize the GOP knows that and was bound and determined not to support job creation  Their factual and over the top angst when the unemployment rate tipped below 8% is clear evidence of one of their strategies gone not according to plan. 

 

GOP Mantra and political sloganeering fizzles in the face of CNN Money’s “Obama.s economy: A snapshot”.

Obama’s economy: A snapshot

When the president entered office on Jan. 20, 2009, the economy was issue No. 1. It still is today. Here’s a look at where the economy stood then and what’s changed since.

Job growth

Job losses peaked in early 2009, and steadily declined throughout the year. The economy finally started creating jobs in the beginning of 2010, but then employers pulled back in the summer. A similar trend occurred in 2011, and then again in 2012, when strong momentum early in the year stumbled in the spring.

Unemployment

The unemployment rate surged to 10% in Obama’s first year in office and has fallen gradually since then, landing at 7.9% as of October. Part of the decline has come as some Americans have gone back to work, but also because many workers have dropped out of the labor force.

Economic growth

During the first three months of 2009, the economy slumped at an annual rate of 5.3%. Since then GDP has been growing and slowly recovering, but the rebound has been a lackluster one compared to those following prior recessions.

Home prices

Home prices have moved up and down since the start of Obama’s term. Lifted in 2010 on the back of the Recovery Act’s homebuyer tax credit, prices later fell when the credit expired. But overall, the trend has been lower, and housing remains in a major slump.

Foreclosures

 

More than 3 million Americans have lost their homes to foreclosure since early 2009, but bank repossessions have fallen in half since they peaked in September 2010.

Inflation

Gas and food prices have had a few temporary growth spurts in the past few years, but overall, inflation has remained relatively low, held back by falling home prices and stagnant wages.

Gas prices

 

Three-and-a-half years ago, filling up at the pump cost around $1.60 a gallon. But then, gas prices began to climb, eventually topping out at nearly $4 a gallon in mid-2011, and coming pretty close again in 2012. Since then, prices have fallen back a bit. 

 

See January 2009 chart addendum 

Gas Prices Addendum Econographia

About rising gas prices: January 2001 – February 2012 Gasoline prices have been rising and represent a threat .. or, at the very least, head-winds .. to economic recovery. American drivers could experience record high gas prices over the remainder of this year. This price escalation is occurring in the face of domestic crude oil production that has increased dramatically over the past few years .. and, at a time when demand for gasoline is approaching the lowest level in a decade. Moreover, the U.S. has become a net exporter of gasoline. Still, gas prices are rising, providing political fodder for exploitation in the presidential campaign. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) collects, analyzes, and disseminates a wide range of information and data products covering energy production, stocks, demand, imports, exports, and prices. This includes historical data and on-going updates on regional and national gasoline and diesel fuel prices. The following graph shows the history of weekly gas prices from January 22, 2001 to February 20, 2012. The data is sourced from the U.S. EIA’s Table 12, and represents the national retail price (dollars per gallon) for all grades and all formulations (click) here.  Here’s the graph: Weekly U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices, All Grades All Formulations: January 2001 – February 2012 Over this period, the record peak U.S. Retail price occurred on July 14, 2007, at $4.17 per gallon. Spanning the Bush years, EIA’s records show falling production until 2005 and flat production from 2005 until 2009 .. and higher consumption levels. Moreover, these years saw minimal oil company investment in renewable and alternative energy ventures .. and a long, well documented succession of federal budget cuts for alternative energy. Under these circumstances, price escalations are understandable. While prices plunged during the Great Recession, they have risen steadily since Obama was sworn in. This is the case despite domestic crude oil production that has increased dramatically over the past few years to the highest level of output in 8 years .. and at a time when inventories of stored oil are unusually high .. and at a time when demand for gasoline is approaching the lowest level in a decade .. and at a time when the U.S. has become a net exporter of gasoline, diesel and jet fuels for the first time in 60 years.  Given this context, the price of oil and gasoline has leaped far beyond conventional supply and demand variables. The hubristic accusations that “Obama environmental policies” are at fault simply don’t add up. A far more rational explanation is that with increased tension over Iran the last few months, financial speculators are fanning the Iranian fear factor into ever-higher prices. Approximately 60 to 70 percent of oil contracts in the futures markets are not held by companies that need oil, for instance airlines and oil companies. Rather, they are held by investors that are looking to make money from their speculative positions. These investors don’t actually take delivery of the oil. They buy the paper, and hope to bid up and sell it for more than they paid for it … before they have to take delivery. How much of the price inflation is due to a speculative premium .. is a guessing game.

Stocks

 

After bottoming out in 2009, stocks came roaring back over the next several years. But after starting 2012 with the best quarter in years, the European debt crisis and a slowing U.S. economy spooked investors, putting CNNMoney’s Fear & Greed index in extreme fear territory. Experts still predict the S&P 500 will end 2012 on a high note. Most strategists surveyed by CNNMoney think the broad index will end the year up 15% from where it started.

Interest rates

 

Already-low interest rates rose steadily in 2009 as the economy slowly began to recover, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note hitting 4.01% in the spring of 2010. But since then, extreme fear has settled in, causing investors to flee for the safety of government-backed U.S. Treasuries, sending 10-year yields tumbling. 

Manufacturing

 

Manufacturing slowed through much of 2009, bottoming out midway through the year. Since then, the sector has steadily rebounded, with industrial production hitting a nearly four-year high in April.

Consumer spending

 

Amid slumping home prices and rising unemployment, consumers pulled back on their spending during the recession. Stimulus programs temporarily boosted auto sales and home purchases in 2009, but since then, spending has picked up only gradually. Consumers are focusing on paying down debt instead.

 

National debt (% of GDP)

 

The financial crisis of 2008 spurred a big chunk of spending increases and tax cuts to stem the pain of the downturn. That’s a key reason why debt held by the public — individual bondholders, big investors, and foreign governments — has increased significantly since 2008. That jump will have to be paid off with interest. 

Government spending

 

The bank bailout and federal stimulus programs aimed at juicing the economy pushed up spending significantly in fiscal 2009, which began in October of 2008. Revenue, meanwhile, fell to 60-year lows as the economy slumped and millions of people lost their jobs. That, in turn, increased safety net spending.


Of course, I say undecideds are unbelievable  but there mus be considerations of people who would vote against President Obama even if the economy was booming.  The reason for such…….another issue for another screed.

Will Creating Fewer Jobs Grow The Economy?

Cross posted from www.thelimingview.blogspot.com

Is that what Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney was suggesting while speaking at an Iowa Campaign event recently – - – that to grow the Economy we actually need less teachers, policemen and firefighters on the payroll?


Is that in fact what he said or has there been some kind of misinterpretation?

Surely to goodness a Presidential Candidate who is billed as a Job Creator would not be suggesting an agenda of cutting jobs!


Republicans seem to be always talking about how President Obama has no jobs program on the table but they never seem to mention that he sent a comprehensive “American Jobs Act” to Congress a long time ago and they are still sitting on it, as it were – - -The President’s Jobs Act that would reportedly create almost Two Million new jobs (A lot of them in Construction and Rebuilding Infrastructure).



I don’t know what some Right Wingers expect to gain by denying President Obama has any kind of Jobs Plan when they seem to absolutely refuse to move on the one he sent them.


Now some observers are asking, “Does Mitt Romney actually think that America needs fewer jobs for The Middle Class and not a lot more?”


I always thought that “Job Creators” were supposed to be creating new jobs and more of them. I do not understand at all how “Job Creators” expect to “Grow The Economy” by either making plans to hire fewer workers or to cut jobs and eliminate jobs wherever and whenever possible.


Here is the statement that seems to have a lot of people all excited about what The Candidate is supposed to have said or meant or whatever as he reportedly spoke about President Obama:


“He wants another stimulus, he wants to hire more government workers.  He says we need more firemen, more policemen, more teachers.  Did he not get the message of Wisconsin?  The American People did.  It’s time for us to cut back on government and help The American People.”


So is the Candidate talking about helping the fabled 1% of the Richest Americans here or is he talking about helping the 99% of the rest of us or is he talking about helping “Everybody” with the “Cut Back On Government” idea?


Does the Candidate’s statement need more clarification or is it just me who isn’t getting it?


I am of the opinion that creating fewer jobs is not the job of a Jobs Creator and I am also of the opinion that if we were to get rid of more firemen, policemen and teachers than we already have it would be more destructive to the Economy than it would be a help to the Economy – - – which, by the way, needs all the help it can get right now as I see things.


Can someone smarter than me (and that would include almost everybody, I guess) figure out the logic in what the Candidate said about all this during his Iowa appearance the other day?


Posted by John Liming as part of his continuing Diary of Political Opinions.


Picture Credit  -  Public Domain Image from Wikimedia Commons.

Velshi "Your Money": Obama Administration Failures! (Not hardly)

Ali Velshi, CNN Host and Finance Contributor

The following screed requires a wee-bit of time to complete. The central theme is our perception of the economy and how one news host carefully and credibly present a perspective that many do not cover.  The extent to which right-wing campaign strategies, pundits and ’so-called’ experts wish to continue to poo-poo economic and financial progress is stupefying. 


Before I delve into this screed, allow me to glom a bit of credibility by openly admitting to a bias for the Obama Administration financial analyses from CNN’s Ali Velshi. Velshi will state his perceptions of mistakes or less than stellar effort from the Administration when criticism is due, but he balances those ‘out-takes’ with exuberance when proper credit is worthy.

I enjoy his work because he seems to be fair towards an administration which has suffered greatly from GOP Obstructionism” and expert punditry, at a time when most host on his network either will not or cannot speak frankly. I heard yesterday that a prominent host on CNN’s evening shows, Erin Burnett, is married to a Wall Street professional. Unbiased analysis from Burnett? Other host with significant-other connections were also mentioned by those names have been lost in the gray matter. Analysis such as Velshi’s is also critical when one considers the number of conservative pundits who frequent, or who accept, invitations, to appear on CNN talk shows. Unlike Fox News where it is rare to see an Left leaning pundit, or MSNBC where only a few paid pundits (regular contributors) will appear.

Example. While watching Velshi this Saturday morning, he hosted at least two segments on the economy. Both included Right-Wing pundits (or so-called experts. Ronald Martin, Left-wing pundit and paid CNN contributor, appeared in the second segment on a split screen with the Right-Wing pundit (so-called expert). Maybe, Velshi and his producers prefer Right-wing pundits based on Velshi’s often appearance of support for the administration policies (and efforts).

Velshi sits and discusses jobs with CNN’s most prominent Right-wing pundit. The pundit, in my mind is noted for his expressions of exasperation when others seem to either disagree with his punditry or when others fail to see his points. An example of such is blatant in the following video.





A few words from Velshi about the economy.

Housing Market. Watch the punditry in this segment. And, watch Velshi’s focused efforts to be fair with both guest.





Consumer Confidence,  Now watch this Romney strategist.  Did she actually answer any questions?  She seems well equipped with talking points, but after a few utterances the talking-points tire-out badly.

Election year or not, GOP vs. DEM, I contend it is refreshing to see and hear Velshi’s commentary and analysis. While most non_MSNBC News show hosts and producers seem to find more ratings opportunities in “failed administration and “terrible economy” data indicates the economy has improved from President Obama’s inauguration date. data also indicates the climb form the Bush great recession, is on-going and (slowly) consistent.

Fair and balanced is a good thing when applied equally and fairly. Velshi does not immerse in heated arguments with his guest and he does not allow over-use of talking points. It has become so common to see and hear News Host (even a couple on MSNBC) sit back while Right=Wing pundits blabber off ever changing talking-points, Velshi departure from the “FOX NEWS Model” is a pleasant experience.

I look forward to the day when Velshi or any News host addresses the now old ‘gas prices’ talking pint so popular with all GOP pundits this past April. It will be most intriguing to see how any pundit will respond if asked, “…..well prices seems to have started a slow but steady declined since the President ordered Eric Holder to investigate oil and gas speculation.”

Kudos to Velshi for delivering as close to fair analysis available on cable new networks.

Bush Speaks! Anyone listening other than Mitt Romney?

The 43rd President of the United States of America speaks!

On the very day Rick Santorum announced his was headed to the ‘graveyard’ of the 2012 GOP quest for president, George W. Bush again stepped on the GOP’s shtick.  He rained on Mitt Romney’s parade in an unforgettable way. While a pure coincidence, it is ironic the worst president in modern US History would come-forth spewing oratory that induces reflection on 2007/2008 and early 2009: The US Great Recession.  Earlier in the week, Bush visited the US Historical Society (of all venues) to speak about tax policy and economic growth. 


TAX POLICY!!!! 


ECONOMIC GROWTH!!!!!


I understand conservatives are not people who reflect on the past as a guide to the future’.  It is not in their paradigm or their ilk to remember and contemplate and ask basic questions like, “Shouldn’t we ask George W. Bush” to hang-back until after the election to speak about tax policy and economic growth.”


If there is a thought of harshness in my words, think for a minute back to 2008.  During the entire 2008 campaign, did you hear, see, or sense any presence of the following people:  George W. Bush, Dick Cheney, or Condooleezza (S/P) Rice?  Do you believe that was by coincidence?  Factually speaking, Cheney was dispatched to the country of Georgia and Rice was dispatched also, but I do not recall to what corner of the globe.  Bush was simply hidden like an ashamed and remorseful monster. 



As you listen to the embedded video, consider the following.

I .   Bush mentions job creators.  Why did the creators disappear on him after 7 years of ‘false trickling economics’?  December 2007 (when the recession started despite Bush protestation and lies that the nation was not in recession) through December 2011.  See Chart below.  The jobs picture is actually better in 2012 despite the dip for March 2012.

II.  Bush Tax Cuts.  The following charts from All American Patriots dot Com  and The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities dot Org do not address Bush simultaneous waging of two wars while cutting taxes providing imbalanced benefit to the wealthy Americans. All Republicans and many democrats supported the utter devastating economic practice of two wars while cutting taxes. 

\

Bush at the speaks and those who supported him 99 per cent of the time, are stark in their lack of comment.

Bush’s speech was the first public speech I can remember sense he shamefully left office in 2009.  The oratory could not have come at a better time.  People who have opportunity to reflect back (to his administration) while recognizing the current GOP is a much worse evil than in year 2000.


Do you want to know the really sad part of his speech in New York City?  He actually speaks as if he has one iota of credibility from which to speak.  The record speaks for itself, how could he exercise such a cavalier brazenness in the face of reality.  Of course, he mentions a book and rest assured he was paid handsomely to expose himself.  


I have to wonder if the people in his audience, paid to sit through his speech? If they could afford the ticket price, surely their minds had to occupied with questions about his choice of topic considering his record and our continued ailing economy.

III. Since the words ‘gas prices’ is on every smiling GOP face, though I would add a quick ‘take’ on gas prices. 


Brook Wilson’s Economic Blog dot Com

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Using Supply an Demand to Illustrate How Policy Impacts the Gasoline Market

Voters’ blood pressure has soared as rising gasoline prices have hammered their budgets. Many heap blame on President Obama as they have on past presidents for events that occur under their administrations, perhaps because politicians running for office claim they can fix all problems. Seizing an opportunity to win votes, Republican politicians blame President Obama’s policy for rising gasoline prices and promise to dramatically lower prices just as Democratic claimed power to solve pertinent economic problems four years ago. Politicians are not omnipotent and even when policies affect outcomes; their policies can be overwhelmed by market forces.

The graph “EIA U.S. All Grades Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices” plots the price of gasoline over the past eleven years beginning with President Bush’s first term. As President Obama’s Republican critics state, the price of gas has nearly doubled since he took office. Picking a starting point is a good way to trick unwary readers. By using a longer time frame, it is clear that rising prices preceded the Obama administration and that the trend was only interrupted by the Great Recession. In March 2001, the price of gasoline was $1.45 per gallon compared to $3.64 per gallon last week.

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I forgot one key point. Did George W. Bush actually postulate the he think HIS TAX CUTS should have another name? ”Somebody else’s tax cut”.  he said. 

BUSH: If you raise taxes — in other words, if you let the — I wish they weren’t called the Bush Tax Cuts . If they were called some other body’stax cuts , they would probably be less likely to be raised. But if you raise — if you raise taxes, you’re taking money out of the pockets of consumers.

MSNBC


Now that is comical!

Barack Obama: A President Leads

Some Presidents work for a better America

I received a comment a couple of weeks back from a reader who asked me the following.

“Why do you support Obama. I am curious.”   

While I answered the commenter, President Obama’s leadership this week was clearly obvious. Results from Administration programs and direct action from the president are noteworthy.


A midst all of the hoopla and political maneuvering, evidence of President Obama’s leadership continues to roll steadily forward.


Recent indications of our being in ‘good hands’ are :


A. Movement to counter rising gasoline prices (at the pump)
B. CBO estimates that healthcare reform (Affordable Care Act) will cost less than previous CBO estimates.
C. Unemployment continues to improve.
D. Market indicators are at a five year high.


Movement on Gas Prices

Reuters – Richard Mably reports

LONDON–Britain has decided to cooperate with the United States in a bilateral agreement to release strategic oil stocks, two British sources said, in an effort to prevent high fuel prices derailing economic growth in a U.S. election year. 

A formal request from the United States to the UK to join forces in a release of oil from government-controlled reserves is expected “shortly” following a meeting on Wednesday in Washington between President Barack Obama and Prime Minister David Cameron, who discussed the issue, one source said.

My comments in support of the ‘strategic reserves release’ date back about a week. It became clearly obvious that prices would continue to climb and to climb at a time (of year) unparalleled in history. Prices generally start seasonal increases well later than this year’s climb.

The Reuter’s article covers many facets of taping oil reserves.  Mably’s work includes comment about how other nations plan to deal with higher prices, and he frankly layouts out Administration concern for higher prices impact on President Obama’s prospects for reelection.

Rising world oil prices have pushed U.S. gasoline prices up sharply this year and threaten to choke economic recovery ahead of Obama’s bid for re-election in November 

“At the moment there is no need to use it (strategic reserves),” IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven said at an industry conference in Kuwait on Wednesday.

“There is more supply coming to the market from OPEC countries. There is no price trigger for the stocks release, the trigger is a disruption in physical supplies.”

“There is no real supply disruption, this is just price management”, said Olivier Jakob from Vienna-based consultancy Petromatrix.

CBO estimates that healthcare reform (Affordable Healthcare Act-ACA) will cost less than previous CBO (Congressional Budget Office) estimates. 

The GOP continues to use repealing ACA as political mantra.  President  Obama has asked the Supreme Court to rule on the ACA “mandate”.  We continue to receive reports of how ACA is benefiting millions across the nation, (e.g., pre-existing conditions and coverage to the young).  Right-wing mantra, coupled with the spreading perception of benefit from ACA, are now accompanied by an even more important deficit report from the CBO. 


The independent budget review agency released a report that will garner little to no comment from America’s conservatives and Fox News.  March 2012 CBO and JCT (Joint Committee on Taxation have revised budget baseline projections to show a $50 billion savings over previous projections. 

The Estimated Net Cost of the Insurance Coverage Provisions Is Smaller Than Estimated in March 2011 

CBO and JCT now estimate that the insurance coverage provisions of the ACA will have a net cost of just under $1.1 trillion over the 2012-2021 period-about $50 billion less than the agencies’ March 2011 estimate for that 10-year period. (For comparison with previous estimates, these numbers cover the 2012-2021 period; estimates including 2022 can be found below.)

The CBO/JCT revised projections is nothing shy of great news. I previously mentioned the GOP  calls for repeal of the ACA.  Competent members of the White House Staff has addressed that ridiculously political act via the following video. Does the nation really need to take on additional deficit spending on appeal of the ACA? 


White House.gov 

Unemployment continues to improve. 

As we look at yet and other chart related to jobs growth, we should also keep-in-mind that small print at the bottom of the chart. It is also critical that we remember, the Bush Administration lied about the nation’s move into economic recession. The ‘Great Recession’ started in December 2007. During early 2008, we witnessed face-after-face of nervous White House officials lying about the nation ”not being in” recession.  Interestingly, the White House eventually admitted the beginning of the recession as December 2007; the admission came in December of 2008.  One very notable national event took place between December 2007 and December 2008. The nation held a General Election, and the GOP ticket lost that election.  UUUUUM, Admission after an election! I should not overlook another extremely important 2008 nation event: the nation’s economy collapsed.



While President Obama works to move the nation forward, it is important for the informed to remain diligent in reminding all of GOP governance as the nation slipped into the Great Recession.  They hid facts, lied about economic conditions, and all the while ignored telling signs of doom.


And, now they want us to turn the nation back over to people who show character at levels far below that of George W. Bush.

Market indicators are at a five year high

Historical chart ( available chart date adjustable by date and larger view available - great site)

		13253
		11018
		8782

Jan 20, 2009

Mar 15, 2012

As Barack Obama was inaugurated as President


Snapshot of Jan. 20, 2009

Date	Open	High	Low	Close

Jan 20, 2009

8,279.63

8,291.98

7,939.93

7,949.09

January 20, 2009:   7,949.09 
March 15, 2012″   13,253.00

Dow Jones Industrial performance increase:  0.59978873 (60%) 

Isn’t it amazing how often we hear GOP politicians and Fox News P/R demagogues comment about Obama as a failed president.

The Daily GOP Ignominious: Neil Cavuto and Alan West

Classic Ignominious

Nutty, nutty, nutty

Every news media and related Internet web page are reporting today’s stock market performance.
ThinkProgress reports as part of a broader story the following.

The Nasdaq topped 3,000 today for the first time since 2000 and the Dow finished strong, up 217 points at 13,177 — its highest level since the end of 2007.

Despite our very disturbing gas prices and less than stellar (but improving) housing, other economic indicators are churning along very well. While unemployment remains at 8.3%, we must remind the 8.3% is juts shy of the unemployment rate when President Obama took office (7.8 %  January 20, 2009) and the rate is influenced by people returning to job searches. The returning job seekers are a phenomenon indicative of an improving economy.  Expertise have reported the return of the job seeker is the single reason the 8.3% rate did not ease down slightly toward 8.0 per cent.

The US economy’s slow, but steady improvement is posing serious problems for the nation’s conservatives and conservative (public relations) media.  If you follow US news networks and the almost  comical GOP presidential  nomination process, you have firsthand knowledge of their level of desperation.  We are not hearing about the national debt, deficit spending, JOBS, infrastructure, protecting the nation’s power grids, national defense, education, healthcare programs, nor any common issues common to past presidential elections.  The party GOP has certainly given us a plethora of inane  and  asinine comments and issues:  Obama’s trips to India, Haagen Daz Black-Walnut Ice Cream, birth certificate, religion (well over the top), Voter ID laws,  ”BLAH people”, Food-stamp president, kids as janitors, moon-colonies (guaranteed),fowl-mouthed idiotic P/R demagogues, Paul Revere, and not one concrete issue towards maintaining or improving our society. Also note there is no talk from the  Right about entitlement programs; the season is just not right (excuse the pun) for their central agenda. Conservative media is occupying itself sniping at peripheral issues while using  veritable ’whack jobs’ for comment after their show host facilitate by delivering ‘softball’ leading remarks. Perfect examples include,  a.) Sean Hannity leading Palin into audacious comment about a lack of Barack Obama vetting , [Palin mentions the word "vetting"!]   b.) The following comments from Florida’s Alan West, c.)  Any host comments from Bill O’Reilly.

The latest and quite possibly the most ‘insane’ drivel, is embedded below. The Neil Cavuto interview is classic Fox News and classic mental ineptitude from a tea party member of the US Congress.  Alan West (R) FL. peppers the interview with completely ’concussion-ed‘ remarks. Concussion-ed? I am tying to avoid a more comfortable and descriptive characterization of West’s remarks.  Yes, you have heard it from me before, Host Neil Cavuto leads West into a perfect example of constipation of the brain and diarrhea  of the mouth.

Enjoy…..

ThinkProgress reported.

West said the markets were only up because traders think Republicans will win big in November. Host Neil Cavuto seemed taken aback by the suggestion and pressed West for clarification, but the Congressman stood by his claim: 

CAVUTO: What do you think about that? That the markets say you’re wrong, that the pick up is alive and well. 

WEST: Well, I would think maybe the markets are maybe looking five to six months down the road, when we have a change in leadership in this country – 

CAVUTO: Wait a minute, you think that this is built on a Republican either capturing the White House or Republicans capturing the Senate? … That might or might not be a stretch, but it is out there as a factor. You think that’s a genuine factor? You think that the markets are getting bubbly in anticipation of a Republican taking the White House? 

WEST: Oh, absolutely. Well, I think that there is a hope that may be out there, is that we can get a person that has practical viable solutions for job creation here in the Unite States of America [in the presidency].

OK, despite my laughter, which I am certain Cavuto felt but could not release,  I took a look back at our presidents back to Richard M. Nixon and forward through Barack Obama.

If markets are reacting in a ‘giddy’ manner, in anticipation  of the next president, whom West fantasizes as republican, how can he account for the following (See chart below).  The Dow Jones  Industrial Average took a serious dip in 2011/2002 after the 9/11 attacks.  After the  devastating Post 9/11 loses, investors experienced a herky-jerky, but steadily improving marker until the Bush ‘bubble’ burst in 2007. The Bush ‘bubble’ burst culminated with a DIJA low of  6547 in 2009 the day President Obama took office. The DIJA immediately started a drastic and rapid comeback, very much aided by President Obama’s Stimulus package (intervention). It should be noted that the DIJA climb back to over 80 per cent higher than its 2009 low was not fueled by a ‘false economy’ fueled by toxic assets and sub-prime lending. 

(Click Chart for Larger view)

US Presidents from 1969 through current President

Down Jones Industrial Average Performance 1972 – 2/2012	37. Richard Milhous Nixon	Republican	1969-1974
38. Gerald R. Ford	Republican	1974-1977
39. James (Jimmy) Earl Carter, Jr.	Democrat	1977-1981
40. Ronald Wilson Reagan	Republican	1981-1989
41. George H. W. Bush	Republican	1989-1993
42. William (Bill) Jefferson Clinton	Democrat	1993-2001
43. George W. Bush	Republican	2001-2009
44. Barack Obama	Democrat	2009-

Alan West is obliviously much more accustomed about clicking the heels of his army boots and snapping to a salute, than competent in understanding US markets.  Cavuto certainly knows that the DIJA, NASDAQ and S&P, are not driven by speculation, “…five to six months down the road.”   The markets simply do not work as such. Of course, West could simply have delivered typical Fox News ‘insanity’ to its viewers. Since this screed is based on one of the most idiotic and ridiculously  stupid remarks of this political season, I’ll just sum-up as follows.

 As was stated in one of my favorite Paul Newman movies, Cool Hand Luke,  ”What we have here is a failure to communicate…”   Why does Fox News insult their viewers with such idiotic drivel? How can Cavuto allow a producer to book someone as ‘nutty’ and undereducated (in matters related to the US economy) as West on a show with a financial focus. West is best booked on the Glenn Beck show. Oh, Lost track, Beck was fired from Fox News.  Someone in the Fox News booking staff and guest preparation staff, could have at least alerted West of the nature of Cavuto’s guiding comments.  Hannity’s staff does such when they book the mouthpiece from the North! 

 The final sadness in the West comments? Most members of the GOP certainly recognize the nuttiness of his remarks. Yet, there are millions of Fox News viewers who probably accepted the craziness as fact or a prospects. What happens if the market continues to track higher once President Obama wins in November?  And there-in lies the shallowness of the GOP, Fox News and many conservatives, there is little to no thought beyond the end of their noses.   What happens if US markets tanks before the November Elections? No need to answer. My questions mean little to Cavuto’s audience. Fox News viewers do not care and West has no personal credibility to protect anyway.