The Pardu

Trump And Conservative Support For A Budget Shutdown Score Well With AP-GfK Poll (Question the Poll)

In AP-GfK,, Polling, Talking Points Memo, The AP-Gfk Poll, The Progressive Influence on October 28, 2015 at 9:09 AM

Tis the Season of the Poll!!! 

As is the case with anything related to the pubic and politics, some pools are reliable and middle fo the road, while others appear to have dedicated audience appealing that may influence the poll’s results.  One such pool consistently draws attention and scrutiny. Whenever I hear the acronym AP (GFK) pollI think in terms of conservative lean and unreliable findings. Well, the nightmare hit this week!

The AP-Gfk Poll has come forth with more conservative-leaning survey results. I have read a major of Americans would prefer a government shutdown as a force measured to reduce government spending. I also believe I read (or heard) the AP-GfK indicates 70% of conservatives think Donald Trump is the best candidate for their party.

Talking Points Memo (on political party preference for cutting spending)

“….56 percent overall said it would be worth a government shutdown to win spending cuts, compared to 40 percent who disagreed.”

Talking Point Memo offer the following survey methodology data:
The AP-GfK Poll of 1,027 adults was conducted online Oct. 15 to 19. The sample was drawn from GfK’s probability-based KnowledgePanel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population.

TPM also offered the following:

Tea party backers represent around one-fifth of those in the AP-GfK poll.

AP-GfK indicates it polled a representative group of Knowledge Base respondents. Are we to believe one-fifth of the nation (If we extrapolate based on AP-GfK’ words) are Tea Party sympathizers?

I offer AP-GfK is an unreliable poll and as mentioned above with a decided conservate lean.  In October 2012, AP-GfK published a poll that generated significant headlining via electronic media.  The headline read as follows: 

The Progressive Influence just before the 2012 General Elections (select excerpts)

TPI (October 2012) If you never ever review poll data, you have to give a look at the AP/GfK Poll  data released just a few days before the November 6th Elections. The poll’s major tickler was, a “Majority harbor prejudice towards blacks”.

Page 33 of the Growth for Knowledge (GfK) poll reads like this:

The image screen capture (above) told me all I needed to know about the AP-GfK headline and cast considerable doubt about the polling authority as “worthy of any web space or keyboarding ink.” The demographic data atop the table was reflective of US society. As we drop down to the geographic spread of respondents revealed one-third of the respondents lived in the US South.  

Needless to say, the geographic data generated a major curiosity. How can anyone consider the polling authority reliable? AP-GfK published data with that subsequent headline based on a grouping with an over one-third of the group residing in a portion of the country that has a historic social paradigm against black people. My information quest was most revealing.

Nate Silvers 538 Blog offered notable insight into AP-GfK. You should check out the table below about midway through the listing.

The 538 table also showed You Gov with a slight Right lean. I will accept the lean if I can believe in the polling authorities findings and its veracity You Gov published a piece regarding polling authority accuracy associated with the 2012 elections. Let’s take a look at how Ap-GfK fared.

Figure 1 below shows the point estimates (and reported margins of error) for final national polls from different polling organizations for the Obama share of the national major party vote. The final YouGov poll, released on Sunday November 4, based on 36,472 interviews of likely voters between October 31 and November 3, had Obama at 48.5 percent, Romney at 46.5 percent, other candidates at 2.3 percent, and the remaining 2.7 percent of voters undecided. This translates into a 51.1 percent share of the national major party vote for Obama. As of this writing, the Associated Press reports that the Obama share of the national two party vote was 51.0 percent, so the YouGov estimate had an error of less than 0.1 percent. Two other polling organizations also pegged the Obama lead at two percent.

AP-GfK is suspect and shows as even more unreliable as Rassmussen (a noted and produce conservative polling authority). But, there is another fact related to GfK that I found mos intriguing. What significant event hit US History in 2008? Could the coming election of (or the election of) the nation’s first African-American President provide a business model platform and polling market niche for an entrepreneurial group?

Apparently, GfK was founded in 2008. Now, that is intriguing in and of itself. The following links will provide you perspective on GfK, if you wish. I recommend saving the linked review until after a bit of reading about a past survey published by GfK.

As we listen to media follow the polling authority lingo of: “the majority of Americans,” or “a majority of Americans.”  No, the verbiage should tread or broadcaster should state, the majority of a specific respondent pool of voters.  Of course, media will not expend the time with such specificity. We can only expect quick time influenced words that mislead people to in some cases false reality.


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