Yesterday morning Mark Blumenthal of Huffington Post wrote an interesting and intriguing piece about the impact of polling on the 2012 election. The writer provides detailed information about polling, how it it predicted the eventually election outcomes, and how many polling organizations under estimated that actual outcome.
The article does not address Nate Silver’s consistently accurate forecasting system; a system that accurately predicted the 2008 and 2012 elections results. TPI on Nate Silver.
2012 Polling Accuracy: Right Winner, But Different Trends
Posted: 12/23/2012 9:06 am EST | Updated: 12/23/2012 10:05 am EST
Excerpt
On Tuesday, the National Council on Public Polls released its biennial report on polling accuracy. “Generally speaking, the national and state polls this year did okay,” NCPP president Evans Witt told The Huffington Post, though “they didn’t come quite as close to matching the election results as they had, for example, in 2008.”
Excerpt
The final surveys by Pew Research, ABC News/Washington Post and Gallup all showed a similar trend following the first debate. All three showed Obama trailing Romney narrowly in mid-October, and all three showed a gain of 3 percentage points to 4 points by Obama over the final week of the campaign. Many observers have attributed this late trend to a “surge in positive coverage” of Obama’s handling of Hurricane Sandy during the final week of the campaign.
The Blumenthal piece is detailed, data laden, and seemingly accurate. He ends the piece with a telling reference and link to a site the Resurgent Republic. The site is a conservative data focused web page that tracked polling data, or so it claims. I find it interesting the extent to which the site was completely off on its data and analysis. As I viewed charts below, I was reminded of Karl Rove’s flawed and maligned ORCA polling system and the more geeky Obama campaign NARWAHL system. The results of Rove’s system was evident in his unforgettable “meltdown” on Fox News the evening of the election.
The first chart below was recently posted on the Resurgent Republic. The graphic represents what we call a ‘clean-up’ illustration as it reflects the level of the Republic’s inaccuracy prior to the election.
Larger view click chart then click again in new window.
ENTHUSIASM MIRAGE
DECEMBER 2012
Key subgroups of President Obama’s winning coalition including Hispanics, young voters, and unmarried women outperformed their 2008 turnout levels
If you took a moment to view the graphic above. “The Mirage”, you really must either view a few charts below or visit the Resurgent Republic website. The charts start with an interesting depiction from November 2011. The Republic’s data path starts with a word Romney, Rove and others counted on: Pessimism.
INFOGRAPHICS
Graphics are Pre-November 6, 2012
ONE YEAR FROM 2012
NOVEMBER 2011
If President Obama’s reelection campaign is a referendum on the incumbent, he’s in deep trouble just a year before 2012 because Americans believe the country is worse off than before Obama.
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Now, take a look at May, 2012 through October, 2012. The site does not include charts for each month prior to the election. Or, suffice it to say, if the charts are there, they are not visible for a quick purview.
ELECTORAL FUNDAMENTALS FAVOR REPUBLICANS
MAY 2012
Voters’ top priority remains the economy, and they overwhelmingly believe the country is stuck in a recession, President Obama’s economic plan is not working, and that it’s time to try something else.
BATTLEGROUND VOTERS
JULY 2012
Battleground-state voters are more likely to say the country is on the wrong track and to hold an unfavorable opinion of President Obama.
VOTER ENTHUSIASM
AUGUST 2012
Description: Voter enthusiasm favors Republicans overall and subgroups most likely to support Governor Romney, according to our July survey. This advantage could be the deciding factor in a turnout election.
FORWARD?
AUGUST 2012
In his campaign messaging, President Obama claims the mantle of “Forward.” But voters fundamentally disagree with that characterization of the country. Only 39 percent of likely voters today say the country is moving forward.
INDEPENDENT VOTERS
OCTOBER 2012
In 2008 President Obama won a majority of Independent, but today Governor Romney holds a 51 to 39 percent lead. In 6 out of 7 issues Independents trust Romney over Obama.
The site has few more graphics related to the charts depicted here. I chose these charts based on their clear implication for people who may have viewed the data prior to the election I actually compliment the developers of the data on their visuals. Their method of collecting data has to come under question for its lack of veracity. Yet, the Republic is not alone. Gallup Rasmussen and ABC also error-ed in their polling and related reporting right up until the first vote was cast.
The Pardu's Scroll 