On occasion, we secure and post economic data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank (FRED) , YCharts, and Yahoo Finance. It seems we haven’t been as diligent in posting the economic data based on numerous request to develop and post data for February 2014.
Here you go, “data bugs!” Despite frequent proclamation of a “disastrous” US economy, data doesn’t agree. While, Manufacturing and Auto Sales slowed during the month, other indicators stayed on the path to improvement. Regardless of reason for the 6.6% unemployment rate, when coupled with Fed managed inflation the Misery Index shows well and continues a snail’s pace downward with some level as we move through early 2014.
There is a story here and it is certainly not that of a “disastrous” US economy! The story is available for those who seek information.
2014-01: 101.0251Index 2007=100 Last 5 Observations
Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, Updated: 2014-02-14 10:41 AM CST
Notes:
The Industrial Production Index (INDPRO) is an economic indicator that measures real output for all facilities located in the United States manufacturing, mining, and electric, and gas utilities (excluding those in U.S. territories).(1) The index is compiled on a monthly basis to bring attention to short- term changes in industrial production,. It measures movements in production output and highlights structural developments in the economy. (1) Growth in the production index from month to month is an indicator of growth in the industry.
Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, Updated: 2014-02-01 (We performed REVIEW EDIT FORM 01.01.07 ( the Great Recession started in December 2007)
Notes:
The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Labor force data are restricted to people 16 years of age and older, who currently reside in 1 of the 50 states or the District of Columbia, who do not reside in institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces. This rate is also defined as the U-3 measure of labor underutilization.
Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, Updated: 2014-02-07 8:16 AM CST
Notes:
All Employees: Total Nonfarm, commonly known as Total Nonfarm Payroll, is a measure of the number of U.S. workers in the economy that excludes proprietors, private household employees, unpaid volunteers, farm employees, and the unincorporated self-employed.(1) This measure accounts for approximately 80 percent of the workers who contribute to Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
This measure provides useful insights into the current economic situation because it can represent the number of jobs added or lost in an economy. Increases in employment might indicate that businesses are hiring which might also suggest that businesses are growing. Additionally, those who are newly employed have increased their personal incomes, which means (all else constant) their disposable incomes have also increased, thus fostering further economic expansion.
Generally, the U.S. labor force and levels of employment and unemployment are subject to fluctuations due to seasonal changes in weather, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adjusts the data to offset the seasonal effects to show non-seasonal changes: for example, women’s participation in the labor force; or a general decline in the number of employees, a possible indication of a downturn in the economy. To closely examine seasonal and non-seasonal changes, the BLS releases two monthly statistical measures: the seasonally adjusted All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) and All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYNSA), which is not seasonally adjusted.
(1) Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Establishment Survey.” BLS Handbook of Methods; last date modified July 10, 2013; http://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/.
ISM Manufacturing Production Index is at a current level of 54.80, down from 61.70 last month and up from 53.80 one year ago. This is a change of -11.18%from last month and 1.86% from one year ago
US Auto Sales is at a current level of 15.54M, down from 15.68M last month and up from 15.51M one year ago. This is a change of -0.89% from last month and 0.17% from one year ago.
Misery Index (8.2) equals Unemployment rate (6.7) plus Inflation rate (1.5)
The misery index was initiated by economist Arthur Okun, an adviser to President Lyndon Johnson in the 1960’s. It is simply the unemployment rate added to the inflation rate. It is assumed that both a higher rate of unemployment and a worsening of inflation both create economic and social costs for a country. A combination of rising inflation and more people out of work implies a deterioration in economic performance and a rise in the misery index.
High: 21.98 June 1980
Current: 8.2 December 2013
Low: 2.97 July 1953
Let’s close with Steven Benen, Rachel Maddow Blog, look at the US Deficit.
There are still quite a fewpoliticianswho claim, just a matter of course, that in the Obama era, the United States runs “a trillion-dollar deficit every year.”It’s clearly timefor them to update their talking points.
Closing the books on a fiscal year in which the federal budget deficit fell more sharply than in any year since the end of World War II, the Treasury Department reported on Thursday that the deficit for 2013 dropped to $680 billion, from about $1.1 trillion the previous year.
In nominal terms, that is the smallest deficit since 2008, and signals the end of a five-year stretch beginning with the onset of the recession when the country’s fiscal gap came in at more than $1 trillion each year. As a share of the nation’s economy, the budget deficit fell to about 4.1 percent, from a high of more than 10 percent during the depths of the Great Recession.
Note, this points to the deficit for the 2013 fiscal year. We won’t know the deficit for 2014 until October, but it’s projected to be even smaller.