The US Economy: A Set Of Snapshots

“data bugs!”

On occasion, we secure and post economic data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank (FRED) , YCharts, and Yahoo Finance. It seems we haven’t been as diligent in posting the economic data based on numerous request to develop and post data for February 2014. 

Here you go, “data bugs!” Despite frequent proclamation of a “disastrous” US economy, data doesn’t agree. While, Manufacturing and Auto Sales slowed during the month, other indicators stayed on the path to improvement. Regardless of reason for the 6.6% unemployment rate, when coupled with Fed managed inflation the Misery Index shows well and continues a snail’s pace downward with some level as we move through early 2014.

There is a story here and it is certainly not that of a “disastrous” US economy!  The story is available for those who seek information.

FRED (The St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank) Industrial Production Index (INDPRO) 2014-01: 101.0251 Index 2007=100   Last 5 Observations Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, Updated: 2014-02-14 10:41 AM CST Notes: The Industrial Production Index (INDPRO) is an economic indicator that measures real output for all facilities located in the United States manufacturing, mining, and electric, and gas utilities (excluding those in U.S. territories).(1)  The index is compiled on a monthly basis to bring attention to short- term changes in industrial production,. It measures movements in production output and highlights structural developments in the economy. (1) Growth in the production index from month to month is an indicator of growth in the industry.  Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1) 2013:Q4: 15,932.9 Billions of Chained 2009 Dollars   Last 5 Observations Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Updated: 2014-02-28 7:46 AM CST Notes: Real gross domestic product is the inflation adjusted value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States.  Civilian Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) 2014-01: 6.6 Percent  Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, Updated: 2014-02-01   (We performed  REVIEW EDIT FORM 01.01.07 ( the Great Recession started in December 2007) Notes: The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Labor force data are restricted to people 16 years of age and older, who currently reside in 1 of the 50 states or the District of Columbia, who do not reside in institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces. This rate is also defined as the U-3 measure of labor underutilization. See More after the break below All Employees: Total nonfarm (PAYEMS) 2014-01: 137,499 Thousands of Persons    Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted, Updated: 2014-02-07 8:16 AM CST Notes: All Employees: Total Nonfarm, commonly known as Total Nonfarm Payroll, is a measure of the number of U.S. workers in the economy that excludes proprietors, private household employees, unpaid volunteers, farm employees, and the unincorporated self-employed.(1) This measure accounts for approximately 80 percent of the workers who contribute to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This measure provides useful insights into the current economic situation because it can represent the number of jobs added or lost in an economy. Increases in employment might indicate that businesses are hiring which might also suggest that businesses are growing. Additionally, those who are newly employed have increased their personal incomes, which means (all else constant) their disposable incomes have also increased, thus fostering further economic expansion. Generally, the U.S. labor force and levels of employment and unemployment are subject to fluctuations due to seasonal changes in weather, major holidays, and the opening and closing of schools. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adjusts the data to offset the seasonal effects to show non-seasonal changes: for example, women’s participation in the labor force; or a general decline in the number of employees, a possible indication of a downturn in the economy. To closely examine seasonal and non-seasonal changes, the BLS releases two monthly statistical measures: the seasonally adjusted All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYEMS) and All Employees: Total Nonfarm (PAYNSA), which is not seasonally adjusted. (1) Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Establishment Survey.” BLS Handbook of Methods; last date modified July 10, 2013; http://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/.  4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims (IC4WSA) 2014-02-22: 338,250 Number   Last 5 Observations Weekly, Ending Saturday, Seasonally Adjusted, Updated: 2014-02-22  YCharts (Manufacturing and Auto sales) ISM Manufacturing Production Index: ISM Manufacturing Production Index is at a current level of 54.80, down from 61.70 last month and up from 53.80 one year ago. This is a change of -11.18%from last month and 1.86% from one year ago .54.80 for Jan 2014 ISM Manufacturing Production Index data by YCharts US Auto Sales: 15.54M for Jan 2014 US Auto Sales is at a current level of 15.54M, down from 15.68M last month and up from 15.51M one year ago. This is a change of -0.89% from last month and 0.17% from one year ago. US Auto Sales data by YCharts Yahoo Finance (major market Indices) Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI)  –DJI  16,368.43  95.78(0.59%) 2:32PM EST Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) –DJI Prev Close: 16,272.65 Open: 16,273.23 Day’s Range: 16,258.33 – 16,398.95 52wk Range: 13,937.60 – 16,588.2 NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC)  –Nasdaq GIDS  4,315.96  2.97(0.07%) 2:36PM ESTo NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) –Nasdaq GIDS Prev Close: 4,318.93 Open: 4,323.52 Day’s Range: 4,315.96 – 4,342.59 52wk Range: 3,129.40 – 4,342.59 (Another S & P Record clsoe on 2.27.2014) S&P 500 (^GSPC)  –SNP  1,862.08  7.79(0.42%) 2:41PM EST S&P 500 (^GSPC) –SNP Prev Close: 1,854.29 Open: 1,855.12 Day’s Range: 1,854.60 – 1,867.92 52wk Range: 1,501.48 – 1,867.92 US Misery Index Chart US Misery Index data by YCharts Misery Index (8.2) equals Unemployment rate (6.7) plus Inflation rate (1.5) The misery index was initiated by economist Arthur Okun, an adviser to President Lyndon Johnson in the 1960’s. It is simply the unemployment rate added to the inflation rate. It is assumed that both a higher rate of unemployment and a worsening of inflation both create economic and social costs for a country. A combination of rising inflation and more people out of work implies a deterioration in economic performance and a rise in the misery index.    High: 21.98 June 1980 Current: 8.2 December 2013 Low: 2.97 July 1953

Let’s close with Steven Benen, Rachel Maddow Blog, look at the US Deficit.

The incredible shrinking deficit

02/28/14 08:00 AM—UPDATED 02/28/14 09:16 AM

By Steve Benen

There are still quite a few politicians who claim, just a matter of course, that in the Obama era, the United States runs “a trillion-dollar deficit every year.” It’s clearly time for them to update their talking points. 

Closing the books on a fiscal year in which the federal budget deficit fell more sharply than in any year since the end of World War II, the Treasury Department reported on Thursday that the deficit for 2013 dropped to $680 billion, from about $1.1 trillion the previous year.

 

In nominal terms, that is the smallest deficit since 2008, and signals the end of a five-year stretch beginning with the onset of the recession when the country’s fiscal gap came in at more than $1 trillion each year. As a share of the nation’s economy, the budget deficit fell to about 4.1 percent, from a high of more than 10 percent during the depths of the Great Recession. 

Note, this points to the deficit for the 2013 fiscal year. We won’t know the deficit for 2014 until October, but it’s projected to be even smaller.

Read more

Stock Market Great News; US Citizens Maybe Not!

A great reality correct?   Well, yes, no and maybe ……..

On March 5, 2013 The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached and all time high ….

From 1.20.2009 – 3.5.2013

^DJI data by YCharts

1.2.1985 – 3.5.2013

^DJI data by YCharts

As is always the case in America where there is great news, there is an abyss of balancing bad news for the majority in the populations. That means you and me! As a holding of equities in various portfolios (vehicles) I experienced major glee in watching market improvements the from Barack Obama’s first inauguration to the high mark of yesterday (Chart I above 1.20.2009 – 3.5.2013).  That glee was accompanied by a peep at the second chart (just) above which reminded me that any portfolio holdings have grown exponentially since my initial set of investments.   

“Hold that glee!!!” 

http://www.urrydemocrats.org

There is a down side for all of us, even those with appreciable portfolio holdings and especially for those who are not in the higher income strata. Conversely,  the news is historic and great if you are a corporation.  Mitt Romney and many in the GOP feel corporations are “people”.   If that is the case then we have many “Romney people” who are experiencing low tax structures (If they pay taxes at all), we have “Romney people” earning record profits and we have people receiving government subsides during period of astronomical earnings.  Those “Romney people” are very fortunate. 

Maddow and her guest, Nobel Prize Economist, Joseph Stiglitz, and Frank Rich, explained phenomena that is purely USA Circa 1980 forward. She delves into income inequity and touches on corporate earnings while her guest reminds the record market is an oasis of good news, and that only.

Toward the end of the segment Nobel Prize winner Stiglitz expresses an affinity for the Tea Party and “it’s intended goal”.  Any mention of the Tea Party brings back dark room horrors of overt racism and hatred for the 44th President of the United States. Isn’t it a shame how past (tea party) visual manifestations and oratory from tea party politicians soiled the brain away from countering thought?  

While I have no knowledge of Mr. Stiglitz’s ancestry, I wonder how he would nurture an affinity for a movement that became so very guttural in its actions and core beliefs. I am sure we all recall movements in world history that had a stated purpose, yet carried hidden secrets that harmed to millions”.  “Shut er down?” Mr. Stiglitz.

I digress.

Maddow, Stiglitz and Rich. Stiglizta and Rich are active in the discussion  the full segment linked below  The following embed represents Maddow’s extrapolation of record stock market corporate earnings and other related matter.  It is truly amazing what we do to know about “US corporate entities of capitalism.”

Maddow full segment with Joseph Stiglitz and Frank Rich. I refuse to accept all stock market news as an indicator of a financial oasis. So, I have looked back at the chart from 1.20.2009 through the record DIJA level of yesterday…….. for a “glass half-full.”